Notes
Slide Show
Outline
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2008 Beef Cattle Situation & Outlook
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Current Situation:
Prices
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Live Cattle Futures Nearby
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Feeder Futures Nearby
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Current Situation:
Demand and Supply Factors
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Concerns
  • High Feed Prices
    • High prices bought a lot of acres


  • Expect High Prices to Continue
    • Fewer corn acres
    • More soybeans
    • A lot of risk
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Exports
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Imports
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Long Term Factors:
The Cattle Cycle
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Long Term Factors:
Basis & Seasonality
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2005 & 2006 Arkansas Basis
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2005 & 2006 Seasonal Index
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2008 Market Outlook
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Market Outlook
  • Due to drought conditions for two years there has been greater than expected herd liquidation.
  • Continued export to Japan should support domestic demand and continued good prices.
  • Cow-calf operators are beginning to keep back heifers to expand their herd.
  • Feeder cattle prices are being lifted by somewhat limited supplies.
  • Cattle feeders have historically bid most of their profit into the price of feeder cattle.
  • If feeding profits turn into losses how long will feeders lose money?
  • “High feed-cheap cattle.”




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Marketing Alternatives
  • Cow Calf
    • Retained ownership will be more attractive.
      • Why?
    • Stop expanding before everybody else.
      • Expected useful cow life.
      • Sell some cull cows (watch politics!).
  • Most economists believe the high prices may last through 2009 and part or all of 2010.
  • BUT if you can hedge a satisfactory profit, then put some money in the bank.
  • Be cautious!
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REMEMBER
  • Stay ahead of the management and marketing game.
  • Be proactive not reactive.
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Problems Out There
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Country Of Origin Labeling (COOL)
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